I appreciate your honesty. It can be shocking but it doesn't have to be.
I would talk to a lot of people both for my show and not for my show. In unguarded unrecorded moments a lot of people tell me they're just tired. They're tired of the crap. They're tired of the drama they know Trump lost. They're scared of what it means if the Republicans keep denying that.
You just wrote an eloquent post about how you were going to stay off Twitter. Let me give you a suggestion:
Join Twitter as a normie. Because I've spoke to a broad cross-section of the country What I get is angry and confused people. They don't like the covid denialism. They don't like the Republican party that feels more like a Reddit chat than anything approaching the three-dimensional world.
They want their daughters, girlfriends wives sisters cousins and even yes I've talked to actual women themselves they want to be safe. This was Dobbs this was denialism. It was the angry edge refusing to admit the world has moved on in more ways than one
Take care I can't wait to read the next one
Also you should join as a normie w/ Twitter
Using alias, use a fake picture, you learn a lot by just reading
I'm honestly going to try to stay off Twitter because it's better for me -- scrolling for hours is time I could be spent writing substack or any other goddamn thing. But you're absolutely right that I'm out of touch with regular people. I should probably get out more.
I tell everybody I encounter whether it be IRL or online. The best thing that ever happened to me, and let's not miss words it happened, was I started a podcast where I talked to regular people. Or rather I listened to regular people. It's the best thing that ever happened to me in a lot more ways than one. I don't know if you have the time to do that, but I can't recommend it enough. Because even getting out, you're only going to meet people that you would naturally meet. I had a friend years ago who said that it's a lie that you pick your friends. He said you pick from a buffet of available options. I've talked to so many people that I would not want to talk to or that I thought I wouldn't want to talk to other than this show. But because of that, I have learned so much about the thoughts of average Americans. Like even what an average American is in 2022 going on 2023 is not what you would think. People are a lot better educated than they let on. And that I think is something that gets covered up or not examined enough or whatever. Take care. Like I said before I loved having you, and if you want to email me we can set up a way to talk again. You seem like a very nice person
Thank you for writing such a great article! All great points. The only thing that makes me think people will start to justify turning away from Trump is Fox News. People will believe anything after a year of their news site spewing it nonstop. If Fox turns from trump, won’t people eventually forget about the fervor in lieu of DeSantis? I want Trump to be the nominee, only because I think he’ll be easier to beat. But I’m not very hopeful.
I definitely hope so -- I know a lot of people still get their news from Fox. The freaks I hang out with mistrust Fox, weirdly enough. To them it's lib or at least RINO. Newsmax, Real America's Voice, one of the various poison podcasts out there...
I agree that the big question is whether the Always-Trumpers can break the party or not
The beauty of convincing your base that the Democrats are engaged in a witch hunt against you is that you can use the logic for ANYTHING, even things that are clearly hella illegal and shitty
So I'm not sure how much effect those things will have unless Trump literally gets thrown in jail (and even then I'm not sure)
So far the results have pretty closely followed Andrew Torrez from Opening Arguments. He seemed to be a pretty rational guy, I like the podcast anyway, and his message to be cautiously optimistic, and that there was a (slowly closing) window to take the house and keep the senate seemed insane a week or two ago but here we are.
Trump has already started going ham on DeSantis. I'm fascinated by what's going to happen. Best possible thing that could happen is that Trump rips down DeSantis over the next year or so, gets indicted, and somehow his support collapses and every Republican with an ego jumps into the ring. In that scenario, I 100% predict MTG running and similar insanity like that, and they burn their party down.
From what I've seen of DeSantis he's a more effective leader, he's more ruthless than Trump, more strategic, and ultimately a more harmful candidate, but holy hell is he not very charismatic. He'll have to torture babies on stage or something to gin up the energy that Trump can turn out.
You're right though, the next two years are going to be insane.
I really enjoy it. Andrew does pretty deep dives into legal history to put cases and events into contrast and shows how to read through court documents (start from the back and read forward, because they load all the important stuff in the back). It's one of the few truly educational podcasts I listen to.
The other host also does a podcast with Dr Lindsay Osterman called Serious Inquiries Only where she goes through research papers and either rips them apart or deep dives them. She did a 4-parter on research called the Turnaway Studies which is a long-term study of what happened to women who were turned away from abortions like.... 15 years ago and it's fascinating and heart breaking at the same time. That's another podcast I strongly recommend.
I was tentatively hopeful about this one, but I wasn't sure enough of my gut to fully deny the polls. I mentioned to some friends that I suspected that the GOP might have overreached with regard to Roe, trans people, et al. and that it might just mobilize the "unlikely voters". Hearing the same analysis back from people like Beau of the 5th Column didn't hurt, but I certainly won't say, "oh yeah... I was sure this would happen."
So, that said... Here's why I'm not worried about Trump winning the old fashioned way: his spell over his followers is a strong one, but every new lawsuit, every new blatant misstep serves to break that spell for a handful. The GOP brain trust is willing to use him, but only if he brings that energized core to the party. He didn't have enough of them to win 2020 and their numbers aren't growing. If anything, he brings out the unlikely voter just to oppose him. It was partially surprise that managed to win 2016 for him, but I don't see anyone giving him that chance again.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not intoxicated by optimism here: there are plenty of things to go horribly wrong between now and 2024. Even if that goes well, we're still living on this dying husk of a world and I don't see the Democrats or any other nations doing nearly enough to stop that. There are plenty of other ways that we could plunge into christofascism, but Trump legitimately winning another election is pretty far down my list of likely concerns.
Edit: Fuck you English. How the fuck is the adjective form of 'die' dying? That should be the act of staining fabric.
All the smartest people I knew were telling me the polls were wrong but I wasn't sure I believed it. Certainly I believe it now.
I really think Trump had it right when he said he could shoot someone on 5th avenue and it wouldn't change a thing with his base. The big question, as you say, is whether that base is enough and whether the Republicans can replace that base with something else that could edge DeSantis over the finish line in 24
Either way...yeah. On a long enough frame (20-30 years) the survival rate for America drops to zero either way
Laura, You hit all the points that have had me worried and in this clear-eyed, excellent Substack give me such hope. Did not know DeSantis is so uncharismatic and lacking in stature!! LOL. Been deeply worried about Supreme Court ruling to come & thrilled to learn we're ahead of the thumping for once.
Would love to see how populace manages Biden's slightly cynical bid to cancel student debt. Public forgiveness is a lot better. So too some of compounding of interest, etc. Still what will happen to a disappointed voter's block. Interested in seeing how this shakes out. Younger votes need every reason to feel their vote counts.
I've posted this to Twitter and Mastadon where I have two accounts. Follow me there!
Thank you for writing this.
I appreciate your honesty. It can be shocking but it doesn't have to be.
I would talk to a lot of people both for my show and not for my show. In unguarded unrecorded moments a lot of people tell me they're just tired. They're tired of the crap. They're tired of the drama they know Trump lost. They're scared of what it means if the Republicans keep denying that.
You just wrote an eloquent post about how you were going to stay off Twitter. Let me give you a suggestion:
Join Twitter as a normie. Because I've spoke to a broad cross-section of the country What I get is angry and confused people. They don't like the covid denialism. They don't like the Republican party that feels more like a Reddit chat than anything approaching the three-dimensional world.
They want their daughters, girlfriends wives sisters cousins and even yes I've talked to actual women themselves they want to be safe. This was Dobbs this was denialism. It was the angry edge refusing to admit the world has moved on in more ways than one
Take care I can't wait to read the next one
Also you should join as a normie w/ Twitter
Using alias, use a fake picture, you learn a lot by just reading
I appreciate it a lot -- thank you
I'm honestly going to try to stay off Twitter because it's better for me -- scrolling for hours is time I could be spent writing substack or any other goddamn thing. But you're absolutely right that I'm out of touch with regular people. I should probably get out more.
I tell everybody I encounter whether it be IRL or online. The best thing that ever happened to me, and let's not miss words it happened, was I started a podcast where I talked to regular people. Or rather I listened to regular people. It's the best thing that ever happened to me in a lot more ways than one. I don't know if you have the time to do that, but I can't recommend it enough. Because even getting out, you're only going to meet people that you would naturally meet. I had a friend years ago who said that it's a lie that you pick your friends. He said you pick from a buffet of available options. I've talked to so many people that I would not want to talk to or that I thought I wouldn't want to talk to other than this show. But because of that, I have learned so much about the thoughts of average Americans. Like even what an average American is in 2022 going on 2023 is not what you would think. People are a lot better educated than they let on. And that I think is something that gets covered up or not examined enough or whatever. Take care. Like I said before I loved having you, and if you want to email me we can set up a way to talk again. You seem like a very nice person
That Vance gave Trump a cold shoulder isn't surprising since he threw his own mother under the bus in that crap book of his.
JD Vance didn't actually set the Library of Alexandria on fire to keep warm one winter's night but he would have if he'd been there
No notes.
Thanks, Laura.
Thank you for writing such a great article! All great points. The only thing that makes me think people will start to justify turning away from Trump is Fox News. People will believe anything after a year of their news site spewing it nonstop. If Fox turns from trump, won’t people eventually forget about the fervor in lieu of DeSantis? I want Trump to be the nominee, only because I think he’ll be easier to beat. But I’m not very hopeful.
I definitely hope so -- I know a lot of people still get their news from Fox. The freaks I hang out with mistrust Fox, weirdly enough. To them it's lib or at least RINO. Newsmax, Real America's Voice, one of the various poison podcasts out there...
I agree that the big question is whether the Always-Trumpers can break the party or not
We shall see...
What about all the legal fights Trump is looking at between now and 2024? Surely those will affect the political calculus?
The beauty of convincing your base that the Democrats are engaged in a witch hunt against you is that you can use the logic for ANYTHING, even things that are clearly hella illegal and shitty
So I'm not sure how much effect those things will have unless Trump literally gets thrown in jail (and even then I'm not sure)
So far the results have pretty closely followed Andrew Torrez from Opening Arguments. He seemed to be a pretty rational guy, I like the podcast anyway, and his message to be cautiously optimistic, and that there was a (slowly closing) window to take the house and keep the senate seemed insane a week or two ago but here we are.
Trump has already started going ham on DeSantis. I'm fascinated by what's going to happen. Best possible thing that could happen is that Trump rips down DeSantis over the next year or so, gets indicted, and somehow his support collapses and every Republican with an ego jumps into the ring. In that scenario, I 100% predict MTG running and similar insanity like that, and they burn their party down.
From what I've seen of DeSantis he's a more effective leader, he's more ruthless than Trump, more strategic, and ultimately a more harmful candidate, but holy hell is he not very charismatic. He'll have to torture babies on stage or something to gin up the energy that Trump can turn out.
You're right though, the next two years are going to be insane.
Absolutely agree with all of this, and I should check out Opening Arguments
I really enjoy it. Andrew does pretty deep dives into legal history to put cases and events into contrast and shows how to read through court documents (start from the back and read forward, because they load all the important stuff in the back). It's one of the few truly educational podcasts I listen to.
The other host also does a podcast with Dr Lindsay Osterman called Serious Inquiries Only where she goes through research papers and either rips them apart or deep dives them. She did a 4-parter on research called the Turnaway Studies which is a long-term study of what happened to women who were turned away from abortions like.... 15 years ago and it's fascinating and heart breaking at the same time. That's another podcast I strongly recommend.
I was tentatively hopeful about this one, but I wasn't sure enough of my gut to fully deny the polls. I mentioned to some friends that I suspected that the GOP might have overreached with regard to Roe, trans people, et al. and that it might just mobilize the "unlikely voters". Hearing the same analysis back from people like Beau of the 5th Column didn't hurt, but I certainly won't say, "oh yeah... I was sure this would happen."
So, that said... Here's why I'm not worried about Trump winning the old fashioned way: his spell over his followers is a strong one, but every new lawsuit, every new blatant misstep serves to break that spell for a handful. The GOP brain trust is willing to use him, but only if he brings that energized core to the party. He didn't have enough of them to win 2020 and their numbers aren't growing. If anything, he brings out the unlikely voter just to oppose him. It was partially surprise that managed to win 2016 for him, but I don't see anyone giving him that chance again.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not intoxicated by optimism here: there are plenty of things to go horribly wrong between now and 2024. Even if that goes well, we're still living on this dying husk of a world and I don't see the Democrats or any other nations doing nearly enough to stop that. There are plenty of other ways that we could plunge into christofascism, but Trump legitimately winning another election is pretty far down my list of likely concerns.
Edit: Fuck you English. How the fuck is the adjective form of 'die' dying? That should be the act of staining fabric.
All the smartest people I knew were telling me the polls were wrong but I wasn't sure I believed it. Certainly I believe it now.
I really think Trump had it right when he said he could shoot someone on 5th avenue and it wouldn't change a thing with his base. The big question, as you say, is whether that base is enough and whether the Republicans can replace that base with something else that could edge DeSantis over the finish line in 24
Either way...yeah. On a long enough frame (20-30 years) the survival rate for America drops to zero either way
Laura, You hit all the points that have had me worried and in this clear-eyed, excellent Substack give me such hope. Did not know DeSantis is so uncharismatic and lacking in stature!! LOL. Been deeply worried about Supreme Court ruling to come & thrilled to learn we're ahead of the thumping for once.
Would love to see how populace manages Biden's slightly cynical bid to cancel student debt. Public forgiveness is a lot better. So too some of compounding of interest, etc. Still what will happen to a disappointed voter's block. Interested in seeing how this shakes out. Younger votes need every reason to feel their vote counts.
I've posted this to Twitter and Mastadon where I have two accounts. Follow me there!
@clairep@mastodon.social
@clairephillips@zirk.us
Definitely curious to see what lessons (if any) the Democrats take from all this...