This is going to be quick. I’ve been knocking doors for Harris all day, I have an article to finish all night, then more doors to knock tomorrow. Everyone has their own way of dealing with stress. Mine, I think, is to overload myself with work to the point that I have no energy for existential dread. Whatever your method of dealing with the political equivalent of speeding towards a cliff at 110mph is, I hope it’s in full swing, and I hope it’s working.
I do not know what tomorrow will bring. For the first time since I started to pay attention to politics, I have no hunch, no gut feeling, nothing but a sort of detached, morbid curiosity. What sort of country do I live in? What will the people around me decide to do?
One of four things is going to happen tomorrow, each of which will trigger its own cascade of events that will change the shape of this country and our world — or not. Here they are, in no particular order:
The Iowa poll is right. Everyone else is wrong. Harris wins in a landslide. Trump’s team files legal challenges but the margins are large enough that it comes off as absurdist theater to anyone who doesn’t own a red hat. Harris is sworn in on January 20th. MAGA loses their minds in a whole new way. Nothing has been fixed but no new things are broken. Harris will square off against Vance in 2028. It will, once again, be the most important election of our lives.
Every poll is wrong. Trump wins in a landslide. There are wild conspiracy theories from the Very Online Liberals about how he stole it somehow, but no one takes them seriously. Trump comes into his second term with a mandate, and he will use it immediately. We will all have some very difficult choices to make.
The polls are right. It’s too close to call on election night. When the dust settles, Trump has squeaked out a victory. A lot more people embrace the wild conspiracy theories from Part 2. People will look for irregularities, they will blame voter suppression. These things may be true or they may be false but ultimately it will not matter. Trump will come into his second term screaming about how he has a mandate, about how the only reason it was so close was because the Democrats rigged it. There will be a lot more anger, a lot more shouting, a lot more protest, a lot more acrimonious bitterness than Scenario 2, but the ultimate outcome — and the difficult choices — will be the same.
The polls are right. It’s too close to call on election night. When the dust settles, Kamala has squeaked out a victory. Trump’s legal teams spam challenges in every state. MAGA electoral boards in key counties refuse to certify election results. Their singular, all-encompassing goal: make the final arbiter of this election either the Supreme Court or the House of Representatives. If you also need to stay up all night, here’s an explanation of how this might work.
This scenario is the one that scares me the most, and it’s why I’m out here knocking doors for a candidate that has disappointed me so deeply. If this election makes it to the Supreme Court, they are likely to find in Trump’s favor. If the election makes it to the House, a Trump presidency is virtually inevitable because the GOP caucus will be too afraid of physical violence to defy the once and future President (as they were in the aftermath of J6). Keeping this election electoral will be the fight of our lives, and losing will come with very serious consequences. If Trump triumphs in this scenario, he doesn’t just come in with a self-proclaimed mandate, he comes in feeling like a God. He knows the rules don’t apply to him, he can do whatever he likes, and he will have a whole new list of people to punish and purge for attempting to stand in his way. This is the most dangerous possible Trump, and anyone who has ever wronged this man will be in the deepest possible shit.
I do not have any advice. I’ve been so nervous and so frightened about tomorrow for so long, but I am exhausted and therefore I am calm. The die is more or less cast at this point. Tomorrow I will knock the doors, secure a fifth of whiskey, and go to the watch party. The rest will more or less take care of itself.
Because I have nothing else to offer, I will leave you with my favorite quote from my favorite book: Deep Survival by Lawrence Gonzales. It’s a book about surviving in the wilderness, among other things:
The research suggests five general stages in the process a person goes through when lost. In the first, you deny that you’re disoriented and press on with growing urgency, attempting to make your mental map fit what you see. In the next stage, as you realize that you’re genuinely lost, the urgency blossoms into a full-scale survival emergency. Clear thought becomes impossible and action becomes frantic, unproductive, even dangerous. In the third stage (usually following injury or exhaustion), you expend the chemicals of emotion and form a strategy for finding some place that matches the mental map. (It is a misguided strategy, for there is no such place now: you are lost). In the fourth stage, you deteriorate both rationally and emotionally, as the strategy fails to resolve the conflict.
In the final stage, as you run out of options and energy, you must become resigned to your plight. Like it or not, you must make a new mental map of where you are. You must become Robinson Crusoe or you will die.
To survive, you must find yourself. Then it won’t matter where you are.
I picked the wrong millennium to quit drinking!
Thank you for all the work you’ve done for Harris. And for your writing. You do make a difference.
Thank you for knocking on doors. Thank you for helping me de-stress for a few minutes while listening to you. I’m calmer than I was a few weeks ago just because the campaign is almost over. By this time tomorrow, we will have ruled out at least two of the four possbilities.